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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending together. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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