Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
