Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
